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☆ BOJ to end negative interest rates in 2024, over 80% of economists say: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( Satoshi Sugiyama | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

While none of 26 economists predicted changes in the upcoming December BOJ meeting, many foresaw the negative rate policy, which has set Japan's short-term deposit rate at minus 0.1%, would reach the end of the line next year. In the Nov. 15-20 poll, 22 of 26, or 85%, of economists said the BOJ would end the policy by the end of next year. Having watered down YCC, the BOJ's next focus is to end its negative interest rate policy and push short-term rates to zero, sources previously told Reuters. Close to 85% of poll respondents forecast the BOJ would end its YCC policy, while the rest said it would tweak the scheme again, the poll found. EYES ON NEXT YEAROf 22 economists in the poll who chose 2024 for the end of negative rates, more than a half, 12, opted for the April 25-26 meeting.

Persons: Issei Kato, Kazuo Ueda, Mitsubishi UFJ, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley, Hiroshi Namioka, Namioka, Fumio Kishida's, Chiyuki Takamatsu, Satoshi Sugiyama, Veronica Khongwir, Sujith Pai, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Rights, Bank of, Reuters, Capital, Research Institute, Mitsubishi, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, D, Management, Fukoku Mutual Life Insurance, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Bank of Japan

☆ Bank Indonesia to maintain key rate at 6.00% until at least mid-2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( Susobhan Sarkar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BENGALURU, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Bank Indonesia (BI) will leave its key policy rate unchanged at 6.00% on Thursday and likely keep it at that level until at least mid-2024, according to a Reuters poll of economists in which a few respondents still expected another rate hike. "Bank Indonesia is likely to keep rates unchanged this month. In a Nov. 14-20 Reuters poll, a strong majority of economists, 27 of 31, expected Indonesia's central bank to keep its benchmark key interest rate (IDCBRR=ECI) unchanged at 6.00% on Thursday. While 12 of 28 put the key rate at 6.00% at the end of June, five had a 6.25% forecast and three had 6.50%. "Our base case is for the first BI rate cut in Q3 2024 ...

Persons: Radhika Rao, Brian Lee Shun Rong, Susobhan Sarkar, Veronica Khongwir, Milounee Purohit, Paul Simao Organizations: Bank Indonesia, Bank, greenback, U.S . Federal, U.S ., DBS, Reuters, Maybank, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, Asia's, Bank Indonesia

☆ India's festival season to bring some cheer to economy, say economists
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-26 | by ( Milounee Purohit | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Nearly 75% of economists, 25 of 33, said spending during this year's festival season, which lasts from October through December, will be higher compared to last year. Among those, 21 said slightly higher and four said significantly higher. "From a year-on-year growth rate perspective, it may not be a substantial upside so to speak." Economists generally agree India needs an even higher growth rate to generate enough jobs for millions of young people who enter the workforce every year. When asked what was India's potential economic growth rate over the next 2-3 years, economists returned a median range of 6.0%-7.0%.

Persons: Anushree, Dhiraj Nim, Alexandra Hermann, Milounee Purohit, Anant Chandak, Susobhan Sarkar, Veronica Khongwir, Hari Kishan, Ross Finley, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, Reserve Bank of, ANZ Research, Oxford Economics, Thomson Locations: Delhi, India, Reserve Bank of India

☆ Indian inflation seen easing to 5.50% in Sept on softening food price rises: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( Milounee Purohit | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Rises in food prices, which make up about half the consumer price index (CPI), continue to cool from recent peaks after the Indian government enacted a series of measures to boost supply. "Having said that, the persistent part of the food inflation problem remains there, which is cereals, pulses and spices, and I think the RBI can't do much about it anyway." Rising crude oil prices are also likely to keep inflation elevated in the world's third-largest oil importer. Oil prices rose around 3% on Monday to trade around $90 a barrel. "Oil prices ... are likely to remain high over the remainder of the year on global supply concerns," said Alexandra Hermann at Oxford Economics.

Persons: Amit Dave, Dhiraj Nim, Alexandra Hermann, Milounee Purohit, Anant Chandak, Veronica Khongwir, Hari Kishan, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, Reserve Bank of India's, CPI, ANZ Research, Oxford, Inflation, Thomson Locations: Ahmedabad, India, BENGALURU

☆ India to hold top spot for economic growth but risks to downside remain: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-27 | by ( Milounee Purohit | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

After a stellar 7.8% expansion last quarter, economic growth was expected to moderate to 6.4% this quarter and then drop to 6.0% in the October-December period before slowing to 5.5% in early 2024. "A lot of the drivers that drove the really strong growth from the middle of 2021 to last year have been exhausted. A weak external backdrop is weighing on Indian economic growth as well as sluggish private consumption and sluggish investment." A majority of economists, 22 of 36, who answered an additional question said the risks to their FY 2023/2024 GDP growth forecasts were skewed to the downside. Government measures should cool food prices in the coming months, but rising oil prices will likely place upward pressure on headline inflation."

Persons: Narendra Modi's, we're, Miguel Chanco, Alexandra Hermann, Milounee Purohit, Sujith Pai, Anant Chandak, Veronica Khongwir, Jonathan Cable, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Pantheon, Reserve Bank of India, That's, Oxford Economics, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, India, Asia

☆ Indonesia's August trade surplus seen widening to $1.55 bln: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Workers are seen on a ship carrying containers at Tanjung Priok Port in Jakarta, Indonesia, January 11, 2021. REUTERS/Willy Kurniawan/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSummary Trade data due at 0200 GMT on Friday, Sept 15JAKARTA, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Indonesia's trade surplus in August likely widened slightly from a month earlier amid falling imports, even as exports were expected to remain weak, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday. The median forecast of 19 economists surveyed was for Southeast Asia's biggest economy to book a surplus of $1.55 billion, versus $1.31 billion in July. Indonesia's exports and trade surplus have been shrinking as prices of its top commodities, like coal and palm oil, fall and global demand weakens. Weak exports have also hit economic growth in the last quarter.

Persons: Willy Kurniawan, Josua Pardede, Veronica Khongwir, Susobhan Sarkar, Stefanno Sulaiman, Kanupriya Kapoor Organizations: REUTERS, Southeast Asia's, Bank Permata, Thomson Locations: Tanjung Priok Port, Jakarta, Indonesia, JAKARTA

☆ China 2023 GDP growth forecast cut to 5.0%, 4.5% in 2024 - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Vivek Mishra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"The primary culprit is the property sector. This source of growth has now evaporated and won't be coming back," said Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics in Singapore. The Sept. 4-11 Reuters poll of 76 analysts, based in and outside mainland China, predicted the economy would grow 5.0% this year, lower than 5.5% forecast in a July survey. While recent data showed signs of improvement in the economy, some economists said more policy support was needed for the ailing property sector. A strong majority of economists who answered an additional question said the risks to their 2023 and 2024 GDP growth forecasts were skewed to the downside.

Persons: Julian Evans, Pritchard, Bingnan Ye, Teeuwe Mevissen, Vivek Mishra, Devayani, Anant Chandak, Veronica Khongwir, Jing Wang, Kevin Yao, Ross Finley, Sam Holmes Organizations: Capital Economics, China Merchants Bank, People's Bank of, Rabobank, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, China, Singapore, Beijing, Hong Kong, People's Bank of China, Netherlands, Bengaluru, Shanghai

That has put pressure on risky EM currencies, echoing the dynamics observed last year when the Fed began raising rates. In the Sept. 1-6 poll, almost all beaten-down emerging market currencies were forecast to move little, or trade modestly higher against the dollar in a year, with some making small gains in three months. The underperformance of China has probably been the biggest story holding back EM currencies." Earlier this year, many analysts expected China's reopening to boost the yuan and other EM currencies, especially those exporting commodities to the world's second-largest economy, but this scenario did not unfold as anticipated. Through the end of this year, we believe most EM Asia currencies can weaken," said Nick Bennenbroek, international economist at Wells Fargo.

Persons: Chris Turner, Nick Bennenbroek, Hugo Pienaar, Devayani Sathyan, Veronica Khongwir, Jonathan Cable, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Treasury, greenback, Fed, ING, Reserve Bank of India, Korean, Bureau for Economic Research, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, JOHANNESBURG, China, Asia, Wells Fargo, Russian, South Africa, Bengaluru

Men watch a screen displaying the Sensex results on the facade of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) building in Mumbai, February 1, 2023. REUTERS/Niharika Kulkarni/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSummary poll dataBENGALURU, Aug 23 (Reuters) - India stocks will trade only modestly higher at year-end, according to a Reuters poll of equity analysts who said a correction was likely before then, citing tightening global financial conditions as a risk. Driven by positive foreign and domestic investment inflows, the benchmark BSE Sensex Index (.BSESN) touched an all-time high of 67,619.2 on July 20, up around 18% from the year's low of 57,084.9 set only four months earlier. Over 70% of analysts who answered an additional question, 21 of 29, said a correction - a decline of 10% or more - in the Indian equity market was likely by year-end, including five who said it was highly likely. (Other stories from the Reuters global stock markets poll package:)Reporting by Devayani Sathyan and Sujith Pai; Polling by Milounee Purohit, Veronica Khongwir and Anant Chandak; Editing by Jonathan Cable and Bernadette BaumOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Niharika Kulkarni, Rajat Agarwal, Devayani Sathyan, Sujith Pai, Milounee Purohit, Veronica Khongwir, Anant Chandak, Jonathan Cable, Bernadette Baum Organizations: Bombay Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Societe Generale, Thomson Locations: Mumbai, India, Monday's, Asia, U.S

☆ India July inflation likely breached RBI's 6% upper tolerance level - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-09 | by ( Milounee Purohit | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

That will hit the vast majority of India's population who make up the poor and middle classes. The Aug. 3-8 Reuters poll of 53 economists predicted the consumer price index (CPI) (INCPIY=ECI) rose at an annual rate of 6.40% in July. "There are no signs of any sequential moderation in food prices in August," noted Rahul Bajoria, chief India economist at Barclays. If the poll median is correct, the current surge in inflation was likely to outstrip the 5.2% the RBI projects for this quarter. The survey also showed wholesale price inflation (INWPI=ECI), the change in producer prices, likely fell 2.70% year-on-year in July, after a 4.12% decline in June.

Persons: Rahul Bajoria, Kunal Kundu, Milounee Purohit, Devayani Sathyan, Veronica Khongwir, Hari Kishan, Alexandra Hudson Organizations: Reserve Bank of India's, Barclays, Societe Generale, Alexandra Hudson Our, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, India

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationBENGALURU, Aug 3 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar will hold its ground against most major currencies over the coming three months as a resilient domestic economy bolsters expectations interest rates will remain higher for longer, according to FX strategists polled by Reuters. The dollar is unlikely to give up recent gains in coming months, according to the July 31-Aug. 2 Reuters poll of 70 FX strategists, which showed most major currencies would not reclaim their recent highs for at least six months. In response to an additional question, 27 of 40 FX strategists said net short USD positions would either not change much or decrease over the coming month, suggesting the dollar would be rangebound. Typically, these conditions often coincide with a more negative dollar outlook," said Kamakshya Trivedi, head of global FX at Goldman Sachs. At this point in time I wouldn't say so," said ECB President Christine Lagarde last week after delivering a widely anticipated 25 basis points (bps) rate increase.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Kamakshya Trivedi, Goldman Sachs, Christine Lagarde, Kit Juckes, Sterling, Indradip Ghosh, Shaloo Shrivastava, Sujith Pai, Veronica Khongwir, Vijayalakshmi Srinivasan, Jonathan Cable, Ross Finley, Alex Richardson Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Reuters, greenback, Federal Reserve, Central Bank, Fed, ECB, Societe Generale, Bank of England, bps, Bank of, Thomson Locations: U.S, Bank of Japan

BENGALURU, Aug 1 (Reuters) - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will hold its key interest rate at 6.50% through end-March 2024, according to a Reuters poll of economists, who pushed back their expectations for the first rate cut to the second quarter of 2024 from the first quarter in a June survey. Few are forecasting a plunge in coming months, offering little reason for the RBI to change policy now. Indeed, inflation is expected to average above 5% this fiscal year, which ends on March 31, 2024, above the RBI's 4% medium-term target. In a June survey, economists predicted the RBI to cut the repo rate by 25 basis points by end-March 2024 and another 25 basis points in the April-June quarter. Among those who offered forecasts until March 2024, a slim majority, 32 of 62, expected rates to hold at 6.50%, while 20 saw a cut to 6.25%, and 10 said 6.00% or lower.

Persons: Suman Chowdhuri, Anant Chandak, Veronica Khongwir, Susobhan Sarkar, Hari Kishan, Ross Finley, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: Reserve Bank of India, U.S . Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU

☆ India's economy to hold top spot for GDP but not so much for jobs growth: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-24 | by ( Milounee Purohit | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The world's most populous country aspires to leapfrog to the status of a developed nation, riding on the unprecedented demographic dividend, which demands an annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of around 8% for the next 25 years. It was forecast to grow 6.5% next fiscal year, with expectations of 6.2% growth this quarter, followed by 6.0% and 5.5%. "I think 6.0% to 6.5% is a very achievable and a very conservative forecast for India's growth trajectory," Nim added. The remaining six said the PLI scheme, which allocated billions of rupees as incentives from the Union budget in 2023-24, will have no impact. While India has a lot more ground to cover to replace China as the world's manufacturing hub, some economists acknowledged the PLI scheme was a step in the right direction.

Persons: Dhiraj Nim, Nim, Ajay Banga, Radhika Piplani, PLI, Piplani, Suman Chowdhury, Milounee Purohit, Susobhan Sarkar, Veronica Khongwir, Hari Kishan, David Holmes Organizations: ANZ Research, World, Capital Advisors, Union, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, China, People's Republic, India

WARSAW/PRAGUE, July 6 (Reuters) - Central European currencies are expected to weaken over the next 12 months with the Polish zloty taking the biggest hit, a Reuters poll showed, as higher inflation compared to the euro zone and the prospect of interest rate cuts weigh. But with Hungary's central bank having already started to loosen policy and more rate cuts predicted in the region this year, analysts expect currencies to fall. The forint is expected to fall 1.3% to 380.0 against the euro, according to the poll. "Although consumer prices in Romania are largely sensitive to the exchange rate, it could soon allow the central bank to let leu depreciate slightly." The Czech crown is forecast to weaken the least of the region's currencies, falling 0.1% to 23.775.

Persons: Marcin Sulewski, HUF, Peter Virovacz, Jakub Kratky, leu, Jason Hovet, Alan Charlish, Sunil, Veronica Khongwir, Sarupya Ganguly, Conor Humphries Organizations: National Bank of Hungary, European Union, ING, Thomson Locations: WARSAW, PRAGUE, Poland, Romanian, Romania, Prague, Warsaw

BENGALURU, July 6 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar will hold its ground against most major currencies for the rest of the year despite expectations of narrowing interest rate differentials as the U.S. economy stays resilient, according to FX strategists polled by Reuters. "The tightness of the U.S. labour market may help the economy and the dollar in the very short term," said Kit Juckes, chief FX strategist at Societe Generale. "Even if we see (interest) rate convergence, it seems unlikely a new major euro uptrend will start without stronger growth." Indeed, a majority of common contributors showed the dollar view against most major currencies for the coming six months has been either upgraded or kept unchanged from a month ago. "The dollar is getting a tailwind from the Fed ... the current strength is on a repricing of the Fed (rate) higher," said John Hardy, head of FX strategy at Saxo Bank.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Kit Juckes, Jonas Goltermann, Sterling, John Hardy, Indradip Ghosh, Shaloo Srivastava, Sarupya Ganguly, Anitta Sunil, Veronica Khongwir, Hari Kishan, Ross Finley, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S, Reuters, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England, Societe Generale, Futures Trading Commission, Capital Economics, Saxo Bank, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, U.S, Europe, Asia, Britain, Bengaluru

☆ Reserve Bank of Australia to raise rates to 4.35% on July 4, decision on a knife edge, poll shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-02 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

While the latest monthly measure of consumer prices showed inflation slowed to 5.6% in May from 6.8% in April, it was still well above the RBA's 2-3% target range, suggesting more tightening may be required. "We don't think a pause in July will reduce the total number of cash rate hikes the Reserve Bank needs to do. Among major local banks, ANZ, NAB and Westpac expected a hike on Tuesday while CBA predicted no move. Just over half of economists, 16 of 30, predicted rates to peak at 4.60% or higher by end-September. Median forecasts showed rates would remain at 4.60% until end-2023.

Persons: Adelaide Timbrell, Taylor Nugent, Devayani Sathyan, Veronica Khongwir, Hari Kishan, Jonathan Cable, Kim Coghill Organizations: Reserve Bank of, ANZ, Bank, NAB, Westpac, CBA, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, Reserve Bank of Australia, Australia

☆ RBA to raise rates to 4.35% on July 4 but decision on a knife edge: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

While the latest monthly measure of consumer prices showed inflation slowed to 5.6% in May from 6.8% in April, it was still well above the RBA's 2-3% target range, suggesting more tightening may be required. Just over half of economists, 16 of 30, predicted rates to peak at 4.60% or higher by end-September. Of the remaining, 13 saw rates at 4.35% and one expected no change from 4.10%. That was 25 basis points higher than the peak expected in a poll taken after the June meeting. Median forecasts showed rates would remain at 4.60% until end-2023.

☆ Bank Indonesia to hold key rate at 5.75% for rest of year: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-20 | by ( Anant Chandak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

All 34 economists in the June 14-19 Reuters poll expected the central bank to hold its benchmark seven-day reverse repurchase rate (IDCBRR=ECI) at the conclusion of its June 21-22 meeting. Nearly two-thirds of respondents, 15 of 23, said the key policy rate would remain at that level for the rest of 2023, with eight economists expecting a rate cut this year. "Bank Indonesia was one of the first central banks in the region to pause its tightening cycle earlier this year. Mapa added BI would "only consider cutting policy rates should global central banks opt to ease monetary policy." Median forecasts showed a 25-basis-point rate cut to 5.50% in the first quarter of 2024, a slight downgrade from the 50-basis-point cut expected in a May poll.

Persons: Nicholas Mapa, Khoon Goh, Anant Chandak, Veronica Khongwir, Madhumita Gokhale, Hari Kishan, Ross Finley, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Bank Indonesia, Reuters, " Bank Indonesia, ING, Mapa, U.S, Fed, ANZ, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, U.S, Europe, Asia

The referendum, which comes amid a wider reckoning over race relations, proposes to change the constitution and establish an advisory body called the Indigenous Voice to Parliament to give Indigenous Australians a direct say in policies that affect them. Five of those polled were funding or planned to fund the "Yes" campaign, while none endorsed nor were contributing to "No". Commonwealth Bank told Reuters it plans to fund the "Yes" campaign and had hosted two panel discussions with Indigenous speakers. Rio Tinto, which faced criticism in 2020 for destroying Indigenous rock shelters, said the Voice would bring an "additional lens" to government decision-making. Aurora Milroy, a lecturer in Indigenous affairs at the University of Western Australia, said supporting the Voice was easy publicity for companies.

Persons: Rita Wright, Loren Elliott, Anthony Albanese, Intifar Chowdhury, Albanese, Meg O'Neill, Ross Piper, Baker McKenzie, Thomas Mayo, Kate Gillingham, Peter Dutton, Coles, Rio Tinto, Fortescue, Aurora Milroy, Byron Kaye, Praveen Menon, Melanie Burton, David Crawshaw, Devayani, Anant Chandak, Veronica Khongwir, Sujith Pai Organizations: Australian, REUTERS, Australia's, BHP, Rio Tinto, Woodside Energy, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Labor, Voice, National, Nine Entertainment, Reuters, Commonwealth Bank, Ethical Investment, Qantas, Australian Financial, Liberal, Fair Australia, Miners, Fortescue Metals, University of Western, Thomson Locations: Sydney, Australia, Rio, Western Australia, Woodside, Queensland, University of Western Australia, Melbourne

☆ Japan will stop yen decline beyond USD/JPY 145, most economists say: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( Satoshi Sugiyama | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

TOKYO, June 15 (Reuters) - Japan's government and central bank will act to stop the yen's decline if it depreciates to the 145 per U.S. dollar level, more than half of economists polled by Reuters said. Fifteen of 28 economists (54%) said the government and the BOJ will take steps such as issuing a warning or intervening into the currency market once the yen weakens beyond 145 per greenback, the June 8-13 poll found. In a separate question on the weak yen's impact on BOJ policy, nine economists (31%) said the central bank's decisions could be swayed by a yen depreciation beyond 145 per dollar. In the poll, all but one - JP Morgan - out of 28 economists corroborated the view, citing an improved bond market functionality and Governor Kazuo Ueda's accommodative remarks so far. BOJ's Ueda has said an end to easy policy would depend on the economy achieving 2% inflation coupled with pay growth.

Persons: Harumi Taguchi, Morgan, Kazuo Ueda's accommodative, Hiroshi Watanabe, BOJ's Ueda, Satoshi Sugiyama, Kantaro Komiya, Veronica Khongwir, Anant Chandak, Christian Schmollinger Organizations: Reuters, Bank of Japan, P, Financial Services Agency, Sony Financial Group, Thomson Locations: TOKYO

☆ India home prices set to stay above inflation: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Vivek Mishra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Summary poll dataBENGALURU, June 5 (Reuters) - Home prices in India are set to hold above consumer inflation, even though interest rates are expected to stay higher for longer than previously thought, a Reuters poll of property analysts found. The May 16-June 1 poll of 12 property analysts predicted national home prices would reach a median 6.0% this year, a modest upgrade from the 5.5% expected in a March survey. "The interest rate cycle is near its end," Arvind Nandan, managing director of research at Savills India, said. Rates are set to stay at 6.50% for the rest of 2023 and start falling early next year. All analysts who answered an additional question said they were bullish about the housing market outlook.

Persons: Arvind Nandan, Anuj Puri, Rohan Sharma, Vivek Mishra, Veronica Khongwir, Madhumita Gokhale, Hari Kishan, Ross Finley, Barbara Lewis Organizations: Reserve Bank of, JLL Research, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, India, Reserve Bank of India

☆ Aussie housing dip over, prices to rebound into next year on rate view
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Vivek Mishra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Summary poll dataBENGALURU, June 1 (Reuters) - Australia's housing market outlook has improved significantly, with home prices expected to on average stagnate this year compared to the near double-digit fall predicted three months ago, according to a Reuters poll of housing analysts. They were then forecast to rise 4.5% in 2024, almost twice the expected rate from the previous poll. While ANZ and Westpac forecast no growth this year, CBA expected a 3.0% rise and NAB predicted a 4.0% decline in prices. "We are almost at the top of the RBA's hiking cycle, which means the headwind on property prices from rates ratcheting higher has largely run its course." (For other stories from the Reuters quarterly housing market polls:)Reporting by Vivek Mishra; Polling by Sujith Pai and Veronica Khongwir; Editing by Hari Kishan, Ross FinleyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Adelaide Timbrell, Gareth Aird, Shane Oliver, Vivek Mishra, Sujith Pai, Veronica Khongwir, Hari Kishan, Ross Finley Organizations: Bank of Australia, ANZ, Westpac, CBA, NAB, Economics, AMP, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, New Zealand

☆ BOJ unlikely to move in April, most economists say: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Kantaro Komiya | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The BOJ will likely keep YCC unchanged at next week's meeting as it awaits more evidence of sustained wage growth, sources have told Reuters. Only three of 27 economists, or 11%, said the BOJ will start to scale-back its monetary stimulus next week, whereas 11 (41%) opted for the June meeting, the April 12-19 poll showed. He added the lowered U.S. and Japanese yields after the financial turmoil also decreased the urgency to tweak YCC, which has previously faced market attacks to break the upper limit. Compared with the March poll, fewer economists expect a sudden abolition of YCC to come without warning. Half of the 24 respondents anticipated another YCC tweak, if not an outright end, in April-June.

☆ China's Q1 GDP growth seen rebounding to 4.0%, 2023 rate seen at 5.4%: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Kevin Yao | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

That would be the fastest growth since the first quarter of last year. For 2023, growth was expected to pick up to 5.4%, the poll showed, from 3.0% last year - one of its worst performances in nearly half a century due to strict COVID-19 curbs. The government has set a modest target for economic growth of around 5% for this year, after badly missing the 2022 goal. The government is due to release first quarter GDP data, along with March activity data, at 0200 GMT on April 18. Consumer inflation will likely quicken to 2.3% in 2023 from 2.0% in 2022, before steadying in 2024, the poll showed.

☆ India inflation seen easing in March on softening food price rises: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Madhumita Gokhale | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Summary Data due at 1200 GMT, April 12BENGALURU, April 6 (Reuters) - India's consumer inflation likely eased in March to 5.80% thanks to softer food price rises, dipping below the Reserve Bank of India's upper tolerance limit for the first time this year, a Reuters poll of economists found. Food inflation, which accounts for nearly half of the overall consumer price basket, is expected to have moderated due to falling vegetable prices, offset in part by surging cereal prices. If realised, this would be the only month this year so far inflation is reported below the 6.00% RBI upper tolerance limit. But with oil prices having surged more than 20% from their recent lows, fuel is likely to push inflation back up again. Inflation was expected to average 5.2% in the current fiscal year, well above the medium-term target of 4.0%, according to a separate Reuters poll.

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